N. Korea... hmmm

[techie]

Well I just read the news, and albeit this is a technicality and most don't seem to pick up on the fine tuned diplomatic language some nations use, it makes me wonder how to read the following final line in a report by the Telegraph.co.uk;

Telegraph.co.uk - Published: 6:01PM BST 12 Jun 2009

"It also has declared the armistice ending the 1950-53 Korean War as void. "

As a footnote at the very end.

Most feel this may be somewhat irrelevant, but does this not technically speaking mean that N. Korea declared the Korean war unresolved and that the US and NK are back at it, albeit without armed forces on the ground (yet)?

 

[Ceewan]

I believe the intention is blackmail of one sort or another, that would run in-line with North Koreas history. Economically the country is in pathetic shape. Despite what weapons caches they might have and the size of their standing army I don't think that from a logistical standpoint they are able to wage a modern day war. They would almost have to do it napoleon style and support any war with whatever they can loot from their enemies,(not totally out of the question considering Sout Koreas vaster resources). The leadership of North Korea is corrupt and lazy and if anything they are looking to sell arms just like they sell their own people,(cases of North Korea sending their citizens to work as slave labor in other countries are well documented). This IMO is what concerns countries the most.

 

[techie]

Yes indeed... well NK is infamous in all circuits.
It's just worrying that they go about things in a Pinky & The Brain manner, when the country is lead by The Brain, and his successor is Pinky.

I doubt that NK would survive a transition to it's successor in any successful manner once Il is gone. Probably more likely is that NK would disintegrate from within before actually going to war in a public scale with its neighbors but it is most upsetting none the less that they have access to nuclear weapons to begin with.

It is far to easy to push the button form them, out of pure desperation.

A nice approach to resolving this conflict would be if all air forces of the world teamed up and "bombed" every square inch of NK with Medical supplies and long life food products to show the people of NK that their leaders are not really capable to scare the rest of the world into submission.

They should have done that in Burma too to avoid the militant junta from stealing all foreign aid.

 

[Ceewan]

If anyone stops NK it would be China, all China has to do is want to. NK is to China from a military standpoint as mountain is to a boulder. Because of China however nobody is going to touch NK, China makes for a very effective bodyguard and no one wants to get in a fight with that musclebound hound. They could very likely take on the combined forces of NATO and their allies in Korea and kick their ass quite effectively. NK is just too close to China and Russia for anyone to mess with militarily and NK is going to take refuge behind their big brothers and use that to the best of their advantage. If NK was in Africa or South America they would have been dealt with long ago. China won't deal with the situation because they get a kick out of this whole thing. I am serious about that. They have all the power here yet if they actually did something they would lose the leverage NK gives them in political dealings with foreign countries. It is even concievable that China has a hand in all this although I am not saying that they do.

 

[elgringo14]

If NK was in Africa or South America they would have been dealt with long ago.

If Korea had not been placed between China and Japan, it would not be in the situation it is, split in two, with heavy weaponry and stuff. Would be just a random third world country.

 

[guy]

I doubt China's not stopping NK isn't simply out of a sadistic sense of humor. China has a lot of critics both inside and outside East Asia, and keeping NK in the spotlight is an excellent way to distract politicians, economists, and humanitarians from concentrating on China's problems.

I don't think the problem is that NK would take refuge behind Big Brother if it were attacked. Given how poor all of the infrastructure in NK is, there's just no way NK can sustain even basic warfare for any extended period of time. NK would almost certainly collapse.

The tricky part is that NK wouldn't simply disappear and we'd all continue living like normal. That whole area is one massive power vacuum, with Chinese neo-communists looking to expand its sphere of influence over the area (and would undoubtedly gain support from NKns themselves), backed by Middle Eastern countries that already support NK; while US/Japan opposing the power grab (from a political and economic standpoint); and SK would eagerly fight for reunification as an independent nation separate from influence from China or the West.

IMO it isn't NK that we should be worried about, it's what NK can make us do to each other by making us distrust each other. Sooner or later NK has to fall simply because its foreign policies are unsustainable in the East Asian sphere; the key is whether or not we'll have a plan for a peaceful transition of power when that happens.

 

[techie]

Judging from a very interesting Internview with the former Swedish PM, who was the first Western leader to meet Kim Jung Il directly in NK, Kim knows very well what he is doing and he has apparently stated at the time of the visit, to the Swedish PM something along the lines of internal change... "How would you suggest, with a country such as ours, you change to democracy and capitalism, without upheaval and a riot on your hands, for the fear of change from one known into an unknown?"

I think Kim knows very well what he would like to do, but at the same time he recognizes that internal change also could backlash from the people internally now enjoying the "ruling positions" in their social structure (or approximation thereof).

On the part of China, I am convinced they have a big finger in the game, as Guy and Ceewan says. Even in the case with the two US journalists who claimed to have been in China when snapped, the guides used fall well within range for suspicion of dubious activities.