Heres an interesting theory i heard over on scanlovers:
Since Japan is passing tighter laws regarding AV, by the 2020 Olympics, JAV could have NO penetration whatsoever, and it would become like IV is right now.
Now, this next one wasn't on SL, but I thought long and hard about it. The 2020 Olympics are being held in Tokyo. The entire world pretty much turns out for this, with billions of people watching. While nothing (that we know of at least) happened at the super bowl this year, it would make sense that some terror group would target the Olympics in Tokyo. Since you have people flying in from everywhere, it would cause mass hysteria. Once again, this is just a thought experiment, but it does have some level of cleverness to it. If that WERE to happen, the JAV industry would be in ruins (at least most studios). If it were a nuclear weapon used.... that could very well be the end of JAV in total. Going forward from that, they would probably continue to create JAV, but this might be years after the fact. Imagine all the rare stuff we have never even heard of that would be decimated in the blink of an eye because a group wanting to strike terror into people decided like this would be the perfect opportunity. Well, they were right on that.
Now, a disclaimer: I do not think that EITHER is going to happen, but sometimes it is fun to think about it (but also terrifying). If you love the Japanese AV Industry, and wish to get those super rare JAVs just in case, then the best course of action is to fly to japan, make friends, network with others that have similar interests, find the JAVs, make a digital copy just in case they are confiscated when you leave the country, go back to your home country, and share with like minded people. That is the best course of action if you want to ensure that the stuff you love is preserved for all eternity (so long as the files are being backed up, and refreshed every month or so)!